The problem with commenting on politics is that it moves too
fast but this weekend is a fascinating one for UK
politics as we wait to see what Nick Clegg will do.
The options are clear enough but the realities behind them
are fraught with difficulty. Nevertheless the real question is how do the Lib
Dem’s want to fight the next election?
If they get too close to either Labour or Conservative it
will be to their detriment next time round.
Whilst PR is their ideal it is far from certain that a
coalition with Labour, SNP and others would last long enough to get a
referendum passed and failure would be electoral suicide.
Handled right Clegg can paint a picture of the statesman who
acts in the national interest, who exerted influence on the Conservative party
so that they governed in the national interest rather than self interest and
strengthen his argument for PR.
Even more there is a chance that the Lib Dems can build a
stronger support base that enables them to overtake Labour.
So I expect Clegg not to form a coalition with anyone but to
agree not to bring down a minority Conservative government. The talk for the
next two days will be what concessions can be won by the Lib Dems in exchange.
We will then have a few days of apparent talks so that everyone can say they
gave it their best shot and this is the best they can do.